Bitcoin miner capitulation signals potential BTC price bottom below $100K

Bitcoin miners are showing signs of capitulation, a phase that historically precedes major price rebounds. The hash ribbon indicator, a key on-chain metric, suggests that Bitcoin may be nearing a local bottom, despite the recent downturn in price.

On February 10, analytics account Bitcoindata21 flagged a shift in the hash ribbon indicator, noting that miners are struggling with profitability as the 30-day moving average of hashrate drops below the 60-day moving average. This typically indicates that mining costs have become unsustainable, leading some miners to exit the market.

Previous miner capitulation phases have often marked the end of corrections, leading to significant Bitcoin price recoveries. In October 2024, a similar event occurred, just before BTC surged from $73,800 to $108,000 within two months.

According to Darkfost, a CryptoQuant analyst, the hash ribbon is a reliable entry signal for investors. He noted that the only time it failed was during the COVID-19 market crash in 2020. “Each time the Hash Ribbons have flashed in the past, a Bitcoin rally has followed,” he wrote.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, pointed out that while miners are increasing their Bitcoin holdings, the hash ribbon buy signal has not yet appeared. He suggested that while this phase presents a potential buying opportunity, market conditions remain uncertain.

“We all know what it means when a Hash Ribbon buy signal eventually follows,” Edwards stated, hinting at a future BTC price surge. However, he cautioned that a lot can happen before then, emphasizing the importance of monitoring miner activity and on-chain trends.

Source: Cointelegraph

“Litecoin ETF has 90% chance of SEC approval”

Bloomberg ETF analysts predict a 90% chance that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Litecoin ETF before the end of 2025. Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas consider Litecoin’s approval more likely than that of other proposed ETFs, such as XRP (65%), Solana (70%), and Dogecoin (75%).

Litecoin, created in 2011 as a faster alternative to Bitcoin, shares Bitcoin’s proof-of-work consensus mechanism, making its regulatory approval process more straightforward. The SEC has already acknowledged S-1 and 19b-4 forms related to Litecoin, and it is expected to classify Litecoin as a commodity rather than a security.

The crypto ETF market has seen high demand, with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracting $40.7 billion and $3.18 billion in net inflows, respectively. Analysts predict more crypto ETF proposals, as issuers experiment with multiple filings to see what gains traction.

Despite potential approval, analysts believe a Litecoin ETF may not attract massive inflows but could still be profitable for fund issuers, even with $50 million in assets.

The SEC’s final deadline for decisions on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs falls between October 2 and October 18, 2025. However, a Litecoin ETF could be approved sooner.

Meanwhile, regulatory concerns remain for XRP and Solana. The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple (XRP’s issuer)must be fully resolved before an XRP ETF gains approval. Solana’s classification as a commodity or security also needs clarification before the SEC can assess it under an ETF framework.

Before Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, analysts placed the approval odds for all these ETFs (except Litecoin) below 5%, but expectations have shifted under the new administration.

Source: Cointelegraph

NYSE Arca files for Cardano ETF

NYSE Arca, a subsidiary of the New York Stock Exchange, has filed an application on behalf of Grayscale for a spot Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund (ETF). This move is part of a broader trend in which firms are seeking approval for various crypto ETFs.

The application, a 19b-4 form, was submitted on Monday and concerns the establishment of the Grayscale Cardano Trust. Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC will serve as the custodian, while BNY Mellon Asset Servicing will handle administration.

According to NYSE Arca, this ETF will enhance market competition and provide benefits for investors. The filing represents the second step in the approval process with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Once the SEC acknowledges the application, it will be published in the Federal Register, initiating the formal approval process.

The SEC is currently reviewing multiple crypto ETF proposals, including those for Dogecoin, XRP, Litecoin, and Solana. Analysts expect the new U.S. administration to adopt a more crypto-friendly stance.

Additionally, the SEC is working on new regulations for in-kind creation and redemption in crypto ETFs. This is particularly relevant for the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF. Previously, the SEC favored a cash-based model, where Bitcoin had to be sold immediately before investors received their funds.

With a market capitalization of over $25 billion, Cardano is currently the ninth-largest cryptocurrency.

Source: The Block